Iranian drone attacks could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz for months, but how long the Islamic Republic could sustain its missile barrage is less clear, according to intelligence sources and military analysts.

Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday (February 28), Iran has launched hundreds of missiles and more than 1,000 drones at Gulf states allied with Washington. Most were intercepted by air defenses, but some residential and commercial buildings, infrastructure and U.S. military bases have sustained damage.

Tehran is a major drone manufacturer and has the industrial capacity to produce around 10,000 per month, according to the Centre for Information Resilience, a non-profit research group funded by Britain's Foreign Office.

The size of its missile stockpile is unknown, with estimates ranging from 2,500 by Israel's military to around 6,000 according to other analysts. How much of Iran's arms cache remains could be a key factor in determining the course of the war.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes, has been one of Iran's main objectives, and shipping through the crucial energy artery has ground to a near halt after Iranian hits on six vessels.

Energy prices have jumped, with Brent crude rising 12% and a European natural gas benchmark up about 50% so far this week.

Strategic missile supplies are a vulnerable point for Iran, according to a former director at Britain’s MI6 intelligence agency.

Missile stores may be lower because Tehran had been supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, a second Western intelligence source said.

Stocks were also reduced during a 12-day war with Israel in June, but they have been partially restored, according to Israeli military intelligence.

A key constraint may be launchers for the missiles. Supplies have at least halved over the last year due to strikes by Israel and the U.S. and further declined over the past five days, research by Britain’s CIR showed.

Despite this, Iran is likely to be able to sustain a fight with its drones. The country’s latest generation of Shahed-136 drones have a range of 700 to 1,000 kilometers (435 to 620 miles), sufficient to reach anywhere in the southern Gulf coast when launched from the Iranian mainland or vessels, according to Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute.

"Even this range is sufficient. Enough for these drones to reach anywhere in the southern Gulf coasts when they launch from the Iranian mainland," Nadimi added.

Many are produced at dual-use plants and other facilities could be retooled to ramp up production, a CIR analyst said.

These drones were able to penetrate Gulf states’ air defense systems, with 65 entering the UAE since the conflict broke out.

They struck Amazon’s data centers, Dubai International Airport and a Fairmont hotel. Bahrain has suffered material damage to infrastructure, a U.S. naval base and a tower containing a hotel and apartments from drones.

Video obtained by Reuters showed smoke rising over Dubai's Palm Jumeirah on Saturday (February 28) as flares crossed the night sky as Iran retaliatory strikes were intercepted.

Reuters verified the location from the beach layout, the coastal layout and the buildings seen in the videos, which matched file and satellite imagery of the area. The date when the videos were recorded was verified by the original video files’ metadata. The smoke in the video is coming from the direction of Fairmont The Palm hotel that was damaged in a strike on Saturday. The Dubai government confirmed that a fire occurred at the location on Saturday.

Footage released by the UAE Ministry of Defence on Tuesday (March 3) showed what is said to be interceptions of Iranian missiles and drones.

Reuters was not able to independently verify the location or the date when the video was filmed. No older version of the video was found posted before Tuesday (March 3).

Oil traders are bracing for further price spikes as the length of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz becomes clearer in the coming days.

And if missiles and drones start to run out, Iran could deploy sea mines. Tehran has an inventory of 5,000 to 6,000 such mines, according to Dryad Global, a maritime risk intelligence firm.

They can be moored to the seabed, rocket-propelled or drift in waters, exploding when a vessel comes into contact. There is no indication that mines have been laid in the Strait of Hormuz at this point, analysts said.

Posted by: AAngeles/NET25 News