(REUTERS) Climate change has driven record-breaking outbreaks of fire in Africa, Asia and elsewhere this year, with conditions expected to get worse as the northern hemisphere's summer approaches and El Nino weather patterns kick in, scientists warned on Tuesday.

Fires from January to April have already caused unprecedented levels of damage, burning more than 150 million hectares (370.66 million acres) of land, 20% more than the previous record, according to data compiled by World Weather Attribution, a research group that studies the role played by global warming in extreme weather events.

The researchers said temperature records could be broken this year, causing widespread drought as well as fires, with the impact of human-induced climate change compounded by an especially strong "El Nino" effect.

"Whilst in many parts of the world the global fire season has yet to heat up, this rapid start, in combination with the forecast El Nino, means that we're looking at a particularly severe year materializing," said Theodore Keeping, a wildfire expert at Imperial College London and part of the WWA group.

As much as 85 million hectares of land have burned in Africa so far this year, 23% more than the previous record of 69 million hectares, he said.

The unusually high fire activity in Africa is being driven by rapid shifts from extremely wet to extremely dry conditions, he said.

High rainfall produced more grass during the previous growing season, creating an abundance of fuel to feed the drought- and heat-induced savannah fires of the last few months.

Asian fires have burned as much as 44 million hectares of land so far this year, nearly 40% more than the previous record year of 2014, with India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and China among the worst hit, Keeping said.

He warned that wildfire risks could worsen later this year, with El Nino increasing the likelihood of severe heat and drought in Australia, Canada, the United States and the Amazon rainforest.

But how likely, and how strong, will this El Nino be?

WILL THIS EL NINO BE 'SUPER'?

The short answer - we don't know.

Dr. Theodore Keeping, Climate Scientist at Imperial College London, said it was difficult to predict whether this El Nino would be very strong.

"What we know is that it's more likely than not that an El Niño will occur in the second half of this year," he said.

"There is a small chance that a very strong El Niño will occur."

Japan's weather bureau says there is a 70% chance for an El Nino to emerge during the northern hemisphere summer, while Indian weather authorities warn the South Asian nation's monsoon season could be below average for the first time in three years.

Keeping said that the chance of a 'super' El Nino had lessened in recent forecasts.

"The recent forecast out of America has predicted a 90% chance of some El Niño event, and only maybe a 20 or 30% chance of a very strong El Niño," he said.

WHAT ARE THE EL NINO, LA NINA WEATHER EVENTS?

They are opposite phases of the same climate system in the tropical Pacific.

El Nino is a natural pattern of unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

It builds when shifts in atmospheric pressure weaken, or even reverse, normally steady easterly trade winds, allowing eastward movement of warm waters piled up in the western Pacific, for a redistribution of heat, altering global weather patterns.

A La Nina forms when trade winds strengthen, pushing more warm water toward the western Pacific and allowing colder water to upwell in the east, driving sea surface temperatures below normal.

La Nina often brings above‑average rainfall to Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, but its impact on the Indian monsoon is variable, rather than uniformly strengthening.

In the Americas, La Nina tends to lead to wetter conditions in parts of northern South America and drier conditions in the southern United States. Overall, the Americas broadly turn drier.

An El Nino occurs every three to five years on average and a La Nina once every three to seven years, says Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.

WHAT WAS THE IMPACT OF PREVIOUS EL NINO EVENTS?

El Nino events vary in severity and impact.

A strong one in 2015 and 2016 caused severe drought across Australia and Southeast Asia, while weakening the Indian monsoon. It reduced output of grain, palm oil and sugar.

At the same time, excessive rain in parts of South America disrupted soybean and corn harvests.

A moderate El Nino in 2009 and 2010 brought dry weather that reduced yields of staples rice and wheat in India and Southeast Asia.

The strongest El Nino on record was in 1997–1998. It caused drought in some parts of Asia slashed rice production, although India received average rainfall. Flooding in the Americas damaged crops.

ARE EL NINO EVENTS IMPACTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE?

We don't know if climate change is causing a shift in El Nino and La Nina weather patterns, Keeping said.

"What we do know is that if an El Niño event occurs, climate change means the weather patterns that we'd normally have seen in an El Niño have become more extreme," he said.

Posted by: Alma Angeles/NET25 News